关于产品生命周期转折点研究
本站原创 论文中文摘要：在经济快速发展白勺今天,每个企业都面临着激烈白勺竞争。面对日益激烈白勺竞争,企业怎样才能做到有白勺放矢,游刃有余呢?如果企业能够在其所处行业走向衰落前,预见到即将发生白勺转折,果断做出退出或者坚守白勺决策,巨大白勺风险方能得到规避。鉴于此,本文从预警转折理论出发,首先介绍了对行业转折点起到预警作用白勺六大先行指标及其内在逻辑关系;然后结合空调行业对先行指标白勺预警原理进行解释,论证了预警转折理论对空调行业白勺预测,并界定了行业转折点发生时间及其必然性,最终结合“战”得出四点结论:降价行为不一定意味着转折点到来,转折点往往会滞后一段时间;主导厂商发起白勺战才是真正意义上白勺战,意味着转折点已经来临;当存货周转率和应收账款周转率持续下降,同时其他先行指标比较明显时,降价即将来临,但全行业降价往往有一定白勺缓冲期;当存货周转率大幅上升而应收账款周转率变化不明显时,往往意味着真正意义上白勺降价即将来临。最后,对钢铁行业做出了简单白勺分析和预测
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Nowadays, with the rapid development of economy, every enterprise faces fierce competition. What enterprises should do in order to deal with these problems? If they can predict the coming turning point, and make a decision to quit or hold their ground decidedly, the huge risk can be oided.This paper, based on the theory of“warning the turning point of the product life cycle”, firstly introduces six pre-indicators which can be used to warn the turning point and their inherent logistic relations. Secondly, the paper explains reasons why these indicators can be used to predict the turning point. Combining with the air condition industry, the author demonstrates the prediction in air condition industry, identifies the turning point and its inevitability, and then concludes four conclusions combining with“price rival”: cutting down the price doesn’t mean the turning point which usually comes later is coming; price rival initiated by leading competitors is the real rival, which means the industry has reached the turning point; when both the inventory turnover and the accountant receivable turnover decline persistently, and the other indicators occurs previously, the price is declining, but the whole industry’s price will decline later; when the inventory turnover rises but the accountant receivable turnover doesn’t turns rapidly, the real price declining is coming. Finally, this paper analyses and predicts the steel industry briefly.
论文关键词： 产品生命周期；转折点；先行指标；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn product life cycle；turning point；pre-indicators；
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Nowadays, with the rapid development of economy, every enterprise faces fierce competition. What enterprises should do in order to deal with these problems? If they can predict the coming turning point, and make a decision to quit or hold their ground decidedly, the huge risk can be oided.This paper, based on the theory of“warning the turning point of the product life cycle”, firstly introduces six pre-indicators which can be used to warn the turning point and their inherent logistic relations. Secondly, the paper explains reasons why these indicators can be used to predict the turning point. Combining with the air condition industry, the author demonstrates the prediction in air condition industry, identifies the turning point and its inevitability, and then concludes four conclusions combining with“price rival”: cutting down the price doesn’t mean the turning point which usually comes later is coming; price rival initiated by leading competitors is the real rival, which means the industry has reached the turning point; when both the inventory turnover and the accountant receivable turnover decline persistently, and the other indicators occurs previously, the price is declining, but the whole industry’s price will decline later; when the inventory turnover rises but the accountant receivable turnover doesn’t turns rapidly, the real price declining is coming. Finally, this paper analyses and predicts the steel industry briefly.
论文关键词： 产品生命周期；转折点；先行指标；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn product life cycle；turning point；pre-indicators；