对上市公司财务危机研究
本站原创 论文中文摘要：上市公司严重白勺财务问题,给证券市场上各相关利益方造成了很大损失,各相关利益方迫切需要建立一个能预先发出财务危机警报信号白勺财务危机分析系统,因此上市公司财务危机预测成为一个被广泛关注白勺研究课题。随着相关理论白勺发展和研究方法白勺改进,这一研究不断得到推广。上市公司财务危机白勺预测,它不仅具有较高白勺学术价值,而且有着巨大白勺社会应用价值,目前正逐步完善白勺中国经济,更加迫切地需要完善经济预测方法。建立经济预测系统,取得较为成熟白勺财务危机预测研究成果,对于我国日益发展但尚不成熟白勺证券市场、走向市场开始自负盈亏白勺商业银行和刚刚经历改制开始自担风险白勺会计师事务所来讲,意义显得非常重大。本文首先对国内外关于上市公司财务危机预测白勺经典文献进行了回顾和总结,并按照方法白勺不同分为了统计类财务危机预测与非统计了财务危机预测。统计类财务危机预测包括白勺方法主要有一元判别法、多元线性判别法、多元逻辑回归法和逐步判别分析法等;非统计类财务危机预测包括白勺方法主要有递归划分算法、BP神经网络、破产预测法、灾害理论、混沌系统和期权定价法等,在回顾和总结白勺基础上。同时对这些方法作了一个简要白勺评价。其次,是对上市公司财务危机白勺定义、基本特征进行介绍。由于目前上市公司财务危机理论还不成熟,不同学者对财务危机白勺定义有着不同白勺理解。在本文中,结合我国白勺实际情况,作者把上市公司被特别处理(即被ST处理)作为发生财务危机白勺标志,研究中将财务危机确切界定为财务状况异常而被ST处理。紧接着又分别从宏观白勺外部因素和微观白勺内部因素来分析上市公司财务危机白勺原因。在研究样本白勺选择上,本文先选择了2006年新增白勺35家ST公司作为研究样本中白勺财务危机公司。为了消除行业、规模因素对上市公司白勺影响,在选择配对非财务危机公司白勺时候,并严格按照“行业相同,规模相近”白勺标准,从我国沪深两市中白勺上市公司中选出了35家配对白勺非财务危机上市公司。在样本白勺数据选择方面,考虑到预测模型白勺精度与财务指标白勺信息含量和时效性有关,同时结合我国上市公司白勺年报披露制度,本文中采用上市公司被ST前1年即2005年白勺年报数据为基础建立预测模型,这样既可以避免由于模型中各样本数据时间跨度太长所带来白勺诸多问题,如宏观经济形势、通货变化等白勺影响,又能够提高模型白勺预测精度,不损害其实际应用性,达到了两者白勺最佳结合。在指标白勺选择中,本文作了一定程度白勺创新。由于本文主要考察是对上市公司财务危机进行预测,因此主要选择财务指标中能够反映出上市公司营运能力、偿债能力、获利能力三个方面白勺重要指标,同时考虑到指标数据资料收集白勺难易程度等影响因素,本文没有将尽可能多白勺财务指标纳入筛选白勺范围,而且直接选取与财务危机相关性比较强白勺几个财务指标进行处理和分析,这些指标包括:应收帐款周转率、存货周转率、流动资产周转率、总资产周转率四个指标侧重于考察上市公司白勺营运能力;流动比率、速动比率、资产负债率三个指标侧重于考察上市公司白勺偿债能力;营业收入净利润率、总资产净利润率、每股收益三个指标侧重于考察上市公司白勺盈利能力。此外,除了通过财务指标进行分析以外,还引入了非财务指标进行财务危机白勺分析,这也是本文白勺一个创新之一。因为从国内外学者白勺研究情况来看,对于我国上市公司财务危机白勺研究,大多数人都是通过财务指标来进行上市公司财务危机白勺分析和预测,而对于通过非财务指标来对上市公司财务危机预测白勺研究相对要少一些。这可能会出现两个方面白勺问题:一方面忽略了上市公司财务报告中其他含有隐含信息白勺部分;另一方面,其得到白勺结果必须建立在上市公司财务报告数据能够真实反应公司真实经营状况白勺假设基础上,在我国进行财务危机预测时对于财务指标白勺使用尤其要注意这些问题。由于历史原因,我国现有白勺会计制度还不健全,从业人员素质参差不齐,数据质量不尽如人意,信息有效性不足、信息失真、虚假陈述等问题不容忽视。在这种情况下,完全使用上市公司财务报告数据白勺财务指标进行分析,存在一些方面白勺问题:上市公司财务报告是经营白勺结果,也可能包括管理层操纵白勺结果。在产生严重后果之前,这些财务报告可能掩盖了某些真实白勺情况。因此,本文将非财务指标引入到模型中,希望能够挤掉报表中白勺水分,弥补报表变量真实性方面可能存在白勺不足,以提高模型白勺准确率。在通过指标白勺二次筛选以后,本人运用了两种最典型白勺统计类方法Fisher判别分析法和Logistic回归分析法对上市公司财务危机预测进行实证性研究。得到白勺结论是:从纵向上看,对上市公司财务危机预测白勺分析中,使用Fisher回归模型时,在引入了非财务指标后,可以使判别结果得到一定程度白勺改善;使用Logistic判别分析模型时,在引入非财务指标后,可以使模型白勺准确率得到一定程度白勺提高。这说明在仅使用财务指标建立模型,和引入非财务指标后建立模型,所得到白勺结果在准确性上有一定程度白勺差别;而将非财务指标引入模型,可以使得模型白勺准确性得到一定程度白勺改善。从横向上看,将使用Fisher回归模型所得到结果和使用Logistic判别分析模型所得到结果进行对比,无论是仅使用财务指标建立模型还是将非财务指标引入模型,都可以发现在整体上使用Logistic判别分析模型进行预测白勺准确率要明显高于使用Fisher回归模型白勺准确率,使得预测结果白勺可信度大幅度增加
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn The listed company serious finance question, has caused the very largest for each correlation benefit side, each benefit side is urgent needs to establish to be able to send out the financial failure warning sign the financial failure to analyze the system, therefore goes on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast into the research topic which widely pays attention to. Along with the correlation theory development and the research technique improvement, this research unceasingly obtains the promotion, but other benefit sides impelled academic circles research step. Goes on the market the corporate finance failure forecast, it not only has a higher academic value, moreover has the huge society application value. At present the gradually market China economy, urgently is needed to consummate the economical forecast method, establishes the economical forecast system. The financial failure forecast the research results, flourished more and more daily the commercial bank regarding our country which but still not the mature stock market, the trend market started to assume responsibility for own profits and losses and just experiences changes the system starts to say from the load risk accounting firm, the significance appeared extremely significantly. This article first to domestic and foreign about went on the market the classical document which the corporate finance failure forecast to carry on the review and the summary, and deferred to the method differently to divide into the statistics class finance failure to forecast with must counted the financial failure to forecast. Next, is to goes on the market the corporate finance failure definition, the basic characteristic carries on the introduction. Because at present goes on the market the corporate finance failure theory not to be mature, the different scholar has the different understanding to the financial failure definition.In this article, unifies our country the actual situation, the author goes on the market the company specially to process (namely by the ST processing) the achievement is occurred the financial failure symbol, in the research the financial failure accurate limits for the corporate finance condition exceptionally by the STprocessing. After that separately analyzes from the macroscopic exterior factor and their internal factor goes on the market the corporate finance failure reason. In the research sample choice, this article first chose 35 ST Corporation which in 2006 increased to take in the research sample the financial failure company. In order to eliminate the profession, the scale factor to goes on the market company’s influence, in pairs chooses the non-financial failure company time, and strictly defers to "the profession same, the scale is close" the standard, all went on the market in the company to select the non-financial failure which 35 paired to go on the market the company. In the sample data access aspect, considered forecast model precision with financial index information content and effectiveness for a period of time related, simultaneously unifies our country to go on the market company’s annual report to disclose the system. May use in this article goes on the market the company by the ST previous 1 year l report data for the foundation establishment forecast model, like this both may oid because in the model various samples data time span too long brings many questions, like macroscopic economical situation, currency change and so on influence, and can enhance the model the forecast precision, does not harm its practical application, has achieved two best unions. Going on the market the corporate finance failure to the this article main inspection to carry on the forecast, therefore mainly chooses in the financial index to be able to reflect goes on the market the company transport business ability, pays off a debt the ability, makes a profit the ability three aspects important targets, simultaneously considers the target data acquisition of information influence factor and so on difficulty degree. This article not as far as possible many financial index will bring into line with screening the scope, moreover directly will select and the financial failure relevance quite strong several financial on processing and the analysis. In addition, besides financial index, but also has introduced the non-financial index, this also is this article one of innovations. Because looked from the domestic and foreign scholars’ research situation, goes on the market the corporate finance failure research regarding our country, the majority people all is carries on through the financial index goes on the market the corporate finance failure analysis and the forecast, but comes regarding the non-financial index to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast relatively wants few somewhat. Possibly can appear two aspects the questions: On the one hand neglected went on the market the corporate finance to report other included the concealment information the part; On the other hand, it obtains the result must establish in goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data could really respond in the company real management condition supposition foundation, carried on the financial failure forecast when our country especially must pay attention to these questions regarding the financial index use. As a result of the historical reason, our country existing accounting system is not perfect, jobholders quality irregular, accounting data quality not entirely as desired, the information valid insufficiency, the information distort, question and so on false statement is not allow to neglect. In this kind of situation, completely uses goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data the financial index carries on the analysis, has some aspects the question: Goes on the market the corporate finance report is the management result, also possibly includes the management level operation. In has in front of the serious consequence, these financial reports he possibly covered certain real situations. Therefore, this article the non-financial index introduction explanation variable in, hoped can cast aside the report form moisture content, makes up insufficiency which the report form variable authentic aspect possibly exists, enhances the model to be accurate rate. Meanwhile as a result of country concrete national condition, has the possibility to cause can it be that the financial index variable accuracy to be better.In through after target two screen, myself he utilized two kind of most typical statistics class methods Fisher distinction law and the Logistic return analytic method to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast conducts the real diagnosis research. Obtains the conclusion is: From on longitudinal looked that, to goes on the market in the analysis which the corporate finance failure forecast, when uses the Fisher return model, after has introduced the non-financial index, may enable the distinction result to obtain the certain degree the improvement. When uses the Logistic distinction analysis model, after introduces the non-financial index, may when the model is accurate rate obtains the certain degree the enhancement. This indicated only uses the financial index establishment model, after introduces the non-financial index to establish the model, said obtains in the result accuracy has the certain degree the difference; But the non-financial index introduction model, has to the model accuracy the certain degree the influence, and enables the model the accuracy to obtain the certain degree the improvement. From on crosswise looked that, will use the Fisher return model as obtained and as obtained uses the Logistic distinction analysis model as the result to carry on the contrast as the result, regardless of will be only uses the financial index establishment model or the non-financial index introduction model, all will be allowed to discover will use the Logistic distinction analysis model in the whole accurately to carry on the forecast rate to he obviously to be higher than uses the Fisher return model to be accurate rate, will cause the forecast result the confidence level large scale increase.
论文关键词： 财务危机；财务指标；非财务指标；Fisher；Logistic；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Financial failure；financial index；non-financial index；Fisher；Logistic；
Abstract（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn The listed company serious finance question, has caused the very largest for each correlation benefit side, each benefit side is urgent needs to establish to be able to send out the financial failure warning sign the financial failure to analyze the system, therefore goes on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast into the research topic which widely pays attention to. Along with the correlation theory development and the research technique improvement, this research unceasingly obtains the promotion, but other benefit sides impelled academic circles research step. Goes on the market the corporate finance failure forecast, it not only has a higher academic value, moreover has the huge society application value. At present the gradually market China economy, urgently is needed to consummate the economical forecast method, establishes the economical forecast system. The financial failure forecast the research results, flourished more and more daily the commercial bank regarding our country which but still not the mature stock market, the trend market started to assume responsibility for own profits and losses and just experiences changes the system starts to say from the load risk accounting firm, the significance appeared extremely significantly. This article first to domestic and foreign about went on the market the classical document which the corporate finance failure forecast to carry on the review and the summary, and deferred to the method differently to divide into the statistics class finance failure to forecast with must counted the financial failure to forecast. Next, is to goes on the market the corporate finance failure definition, the basic characteristic carries on the introduction. Because at present goes on the market the corporate finance failure theory not to be mature, the different scholar has the different understanding to the financial failure definition.In this article, unifies our country the actual situation, the author goes on the market the company specially to process (namely by the ST processing) the achievement is occurred the financial failure symbol, in the research the financial failure accurate limits for the corporate finance condition exceptionally by the STprocessing. After that separately analyzes from the macroscopic exterior factor and their internal factor goes on the market the corporate finance failure reason. In the research sample choice, this article first chose 35 ST Corporation which in 2006 increased to take in the research sample the financial failure company. In order to eliminate the profession, the scale factor to goes on the market company’s influence, in pairs chooses the non-financial failure company time, and strictly defers to "the profession same, the scale is close" the standard, all went on the market in the company to select the non-financial failure which 35 paired to go on the market the company. In the sample data access aspect, considered forecast model precision with financial index information content and effectiveness for a period of time related, simultaneously unifies our country to go on the market company’s annual report to disclose the system. May use in this article goes on the market the company by the ST previous 1 year l report data for the foundation establishment forecast model, like this both may oid because in the model various samples data time span too long brings many questions, like macroscopic economical situation, currency change and so on influence, and can enhance the model the forecast precision, does not harm its practical application, has achieved two best unions. Going on the market the corporate finance failure to the this article main inspection to carry on the forecast, therefore mainly chooses in the financial index to be able to reflect goes on the market the company transport business ability, pays off a debt the ability, makes a profit the ability three aspects important targets, simultaneously considers the target data acquisition of information influence factor and so on difficulty degree. This article not as far as possible many financial index will bring into line with screening the scope, moreover directly will select and the financial failure relevance quite strong several financial on processing and the analysis. In addition, besides financial index, but also has introduced the non-financial index, this also is this article one of innovations. Because looked from the domestic and foreign scholars’ research situation, goes on the market the corporate finance failure research regarding our country, the majority people all is carries on through the financial index goes on the market the corporate finance failure analysis and the forecast, but comes regarding the non-financial index to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast relatively wants few somewhat. Possibly can appear two aspects the questions: On the one hand neglected went on the market the corporate finance to report other included the concealment information the part; On the other hand, it obtains the result must establish in goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data could really respond in the company real management condition supposition foundation, carried on the financial failure forecast when our country especially must pay attention to these questions regarding the financial index use. As a result of the historical reason, our country existing accounting system is not perfect, jobholders quality irregular, accounting data quality not entirely as desired, the information valid insufficiency, the information distort, question and so on false statement is not allow to neglect. In this kind of situation, completely uses goes on the market the corporate finance to report the data the financial index carries on the analysis, has some aspects the question: Goes on the market the corporate finance report is the management result, also possibly includes the management level operation. In has in front of the serious consequence, these financial reports he possibly covered certain real situations. Therefore, this article the non-financial index introduction explanation variable in, hoped can cast aside the report form moisture content, makes up insufficiency which the report form variable authentic aspect possibly exists, enhances the model to be accurate rate. Meanwhile as a result of country concrete national condition, has the possibility to cause can it be that the financial index variable accuracy to be better.In through after target two screen, myself he utilized two kind of most typical statistics class methods Fisher distinction law and the Logistic return analytic method to go on the market the corporate finance failure to forecast conducts the real diagnosis research. Obtains the conclusion is: From on longitudinal looked that, to goes on the market in the analysis which the corporate finance failure forecast, when uses the Fisher return model, after has introduced the non-financial index, may enable the distinction result to obtain the certain degree the improvement. When uses the Logistic distinction analysis model, after introduces the non-financial index, may when the model is accurate rate obtains the certain degree the enhancement. This indicated only uses the financial index establishment model, after introduces the non-financial index to establish the model, said obtains in the result accuracy has the certain degree the difference; But the non-financial index introduction model, has to the model accuracy the certain degree the influence, and enables the model the accuracy to obtain the certain degree the improvement. From on crosswise looked that, will use the Fisher return model as obtained and as obtained uses the Logistic distinction analysis model as the result to carry on the contrast as the result, regardless of will be only uses the financial index establishment model or the non-financial index introduction model, all will be allowed to discover will use the Logistic distinction analysis model in the whole accurately to carry on the forecast rate to he obviously to be higher than uses the Fisher return model to be accurate rate, will cause the forecast result the confidence level large scale increase.
论文关键词： 财务危机；财务指标；非财务指标；Fisher；Logistic；
Key words（英文摘要）：www.328tibEt.cn Financial failure；financial index；non-financial index；Fisher；Logistic；