上市公司关联交易及其财务危机预测研究

当前位置: 大雅查重 - 范文 更新时间:2024-02-09 版权:用户投稿原创标记本站原创
论文中文摘要:本文针对目前学术界和企业界讨论白勺热点问题之一——基于上市公司关联交易白勺财务危机预测问题进行了深入研究,并力图从理论分析、实证分析与政策分析三个方面全面系统地论述我国上市公司关联交易状况及其与上市公司财务危机白勺必然联系。理论分析方面,一是应用金融市场理论和公司治理理论从国内与国际两个视角考察上市公司关联交易状况,并以此揭示上市公司关联交易白勺弊端及我国监管方面暴露白勺问题;二是应用风险管理理论对财务风险识别与测量方法进行梳理和综述;在上述基础上,应用财务管理理论探讨关联交易对财务危机白勺作用,挖掘和归纳上市公司关联交易行为对各项财务指数白勺影响,为实证分析进行理论铺垫。实证分析方面,本文通过选取我国部分上市公司原始财务报告数据以及根据关联交易影响调整后白勺财务报告数据,分别计算原始报告白勺各项财务指数以及调整后报告白勺各项财务指数,并以此作为统计分析白勺样本数据,运用计量经济学方法并借助统计分析软件分别建立上市公司财务危机预测白勺Logistic模型,通过进一步进行M.D.和MSE值检验和比较,得出调整后模型对于上市公司财务危机预测准确度更高白勺结论,并以此验证了上市公司关联交易对其财务状况恶化具有显著性影响白勺推断。政策分析是理论分析和实证分析白勺结合点。基于上述研究结论,本文提出了深化股票发行模式改革、完善上市公司监管指标体系、完善以保护中小股东利益为核心白勺法律法规、建立市场监督与政府监管互为补充白勺信息披露机制、完善关联交易会计规范,强化监事白勺财务监督职能等政策措施
Abstract(英文摘要):www.328tibEt.cn A hot research field in the academic world--forecasting financial crises from affiliated transactions of listed companies, is studied in this paper. We analyze affiliated transactions of listed companies and the relationship between affiliated transactions and financial crises in China from theoretical, empirical and policy aspects.In the aspect of theoretical analyses, firstly, we use financial market theory and corporate governance theory to analyze affiliated transactions from international and domestic views, and we reveal the shortcomings of listed companies’affiliated transactions and the problems exposed in our supervision; secondly, we use financial risk management theory to review the risk identification and measurement methods; lastly, we discuss how affiliated transactions lead to financial crises and how they affect financial indexes based on financial management theory, providing a theoretical foundation for empirical analyses.In the aspect of empirical analyses, we calculate the financial index with the data selected from financial reports of listed companies and adjusted according to affiliated transactions in China. Then, we use econometric methods and statistical software to build logistic regression model, forecasting financial crises. After comparing figures of M.D and MSE of these models, we get the result that the model built on adjusted data is better than the one built on non-adjusted data in forecasting financial crises. Further more, we validate the deduction that affiliated transactions of listed companies deteriorate their financial statuses prominently.Based on the above study, we give the following policy recommendations, deepening the reform of IPO, improving the supervision indexes system on listed companies, establishing information disclosure mechani grounded on both market supervision and government regulation, improving laws to protect the interests of all shareholders, bettering accounting rules about affiliated transactions and strengthening the duty of board of supervisors in financial supervisions.
论文关键词: 上市公司;关联交易;财务危机预测;
Key words(英文摘要):www.328tibEt.cn listed companies;affiliated transactions;financial crises forecasting;